The best article on Herd Immunity and the balance between containing a virus and keeping an economy from catastrophe. See the “curve” in the article. On each side, there are the extremes.
The NATURAL curve, tall in a short period of time, meaning the virus was allowed to spread, and a large number of the population caught it in the shortest period of time. By a large percentage acquiring the virus, nature took control, immunized a large portion of the population and the virus comes under control.
Then there is the PROTECTIVE curve on the extreme other side, also known as ‘flattening’ the curve, prolonging the spread of it over time. This curve is shorter but prolonged in a longer period of time.
Prior to the creation of vaccines, there was no choice. The NATURAL curve is how humans survived centuries before vaccines were created. In pandemics many suffered and died as the natural course of survival took place. Now there is a choice, the PROTECTIVE curve, to slow the spread so that hospitals and medical personnel can handle the infected without being overwhelmed and to ensure ventilators, masks, testing kits and so much more become available.
But the critical point to understand about the curve of HERD IMMUNITY is that whether it is NATURAL or PROTECTIVE, without a vaccine, approximately the same number of cases will develop, approximately the same number of hospitalizations and approximately the same number of deaths.
No vaccine for a virus has ever been created within 18 months of a new virus.
So, as I have said from the beginning, to risk the complete collapse of an economy that will be spoken of 100 years from now as we look back at the Great Depression, do we risk all of that in a reckless reaction that within a month could triple, quadruple our unemployment numbers, knowing without a vaccine, spreading will occur whether it is NATURAL or PROTECTIVE anyway?
There WERE 160,000,000 workers in the US two weeks ago. Now 150,000,000. That’s 8% more than prior numbers. (To clarify, don’t go by the government’s ‘official’ numbers, they reflect only those on unemployment payments, not those who have no more benefits left!) The Great Depression had 30% unemployed. Within a month or two if the Social Distancing, PROTECTIVE curve, continues, most likely Great Depression numbers are reached. This does not include having basic necessities of life – food, water, health care, sanitation, education that are at risk.
As of now the choice of the extreme PROTECTIVE curve and its reckless reaction (because there is no pending vaccine) does not take into consideration in protecting all basic necessities to function in society. Where was the balance? Well soon find out there was none.
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You do understand that we're NOT saving lives by staying at home, but just delaying deaths